The Mechanics of the French Electoral System
In my 2005 book Voting Radical Right in Western Europe, I discuss the ways that strategic voting impacts electoral outcomes, particularly for far right parties:
“France has a single-member dual-ballot system (SMDB), with the exception of the brief switch to PR in 1986…a candidate who wins more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round is elected (i.e., a majority of votes wins the seat). If there is a runoff, anyone with 12.5%of the vote (based on the total voters registered in the district) may advance to the second round. The second round of the election is held one week after the first round. The candidate with the highest percentage of the vote in the second round wins the seat (i.e., a plurality of votes wins the seat).
The French two-ballot electoral system and multi-party system make cooperation between parties necessary on the second ballot. Prior to the entry of the National Front, the left and right developed coordination strategies to ensure that voters would usually be faced with one candidate from the right and one candidate from the left in the second round of a legislative election. Since the National Front has had increased success, the right parties also have had to coordinate so that voters only have to choose one mainstream right candidate in the first round of the election.”
In the early 2000s, the National Front, led by Jean-Marie Le Pen at the time, was considered unviable as a presidential candidate, despite placing second in the first round of the 2002 presidential election. As noted by Le Monde columnist Gilles Paris, “Long ago, like… five years ago, the qualification of a far-right candidate for the runoff of a presidential election was a recipe for triumph for the opponent. That is why Emmanuel Macron held a festive party in a well-known Montparnasse brasserie in Paris on the night of the first round of the 2017 presidential election. Two weeks later, he gathered fewer votes (66%) than the late Jacques Chirac did in 2002, when he buried Jean-Marie Le Pen’s hopes under tons of ballots (82%) but he knew that the second round against his daughter was just an administrative formality. The so-called “front républicain” ruled: Republicans of all stripes voted for him to win against the far right.”
Those of us who have written on the French far right have noted the cordon sanitaire which kept mainstream right candidates from cooperating with the National Front, which has transitioned to the Rassemblement or National Rally under Marine Le Pen. This is what Macron has been counting on, that mainstream parties would collaborate to keep far right candidates from successfully competing in the second round of the legislative election. However, there are signs that the strategy is breaking down, as it has in the past, as noted in this article from June 12th,
“France’s Republicans party has dumped its leader, Eric Ciotti, after he called for a political alliance with the far-right National Rally in snap elections at the end of this month…when he went on TV on Tuesday to announce Republicans “need to have an alliance while remaining ourselves… an alliance with the RN [National Rally] and its candidates”, leading party figures said he had only spoken for himself in proposing a pact.
National Rally leader Jordan Bardella then confirmed there was a deal and that his party would be supporting “dozens” of Republican candidates.
Highly respected Senate speaker Gérard Larcher said he would never swallow a pact with the RN, and other colleagues openly called for Mr Ciotti’s immediate dismissal ahead of two rounds of parliamentary elections on 30 June and 7 July.”
Ciotti was reinstated by a Paris court tribunal. This situation highlights the shift that is happening in French politics, but it began long ago and has only accelerated as Macron and his new centrist party gained control of the presidency and the legislature, along with the decline in support for the socialists and communist parties in France.
The outcome in this legislative election will continue to be driven by a strategy that focuses on who can work together to have viable candidates in each district. A new left wing alliance is hoping to take advantage of the disarray on the right, “The Nouveau Front Populaire, or New Popular Front, comprises parties including the Socialists, La France Insoumise, the Greens and the Communist Party ” (learn more about the history in this article). The short time for campaigning is creating a great deal of uncertainty, but clearly one of the winners is likely to be Marine Le Pen and her party’s prospects for the next presidential election in 2027, barring Macron’s resignation, which seems unlikely for now. As the latest headlines note, “The French far right is leading opinion polls with three days left before voters cast their ballots in snap legislative elections called by President Emmanuel Macron following his party’s defeat in European elections over two weeks ago. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is estimated to win more than 35 percent in the first round on Sunday, with a left-wing alliance following at 29 percent and Macron’s centrists trailing at around 20 percent.”
I’ll be writing up my thoughts on the first round results early next week.
