Some thoughts on the second round of the French Election
It wasn’t clear that the parties would come together to put up the “Republican Front” but this will be the case, reducing the number of seats the Rassemblement (RN) will be able to win. Here’s a good explainer from the Guardian:
In the second round of presidential elections, and in other elections when only two finalists reach the run-off stage, parties that did not make it will ask their voters to support the mainstream candidate. Voters have tended — although in decreasing numbers — to comply.
When the far right is well-placed in a runoff for which three candidates have qualified, which can happen in all elections bar the presidential poll, the “republican front” is more concrete: third-placed candidates can agree to withdraw so as not to split the anti-RN vote.
Such agreements can be local or national, and once again rely on voters to make them work. Whatever their political preferences, they are invited to “block” a far-right victory by voting for whichever candidate is left standing against the far right party.
The republican front is so named because the RN is seen as “anti-republican”, on the grounds that its French-first plans for a “national preference” in jobs and benefits, and some of its anti-immigration proposals, run contrary to constitutional principles of equality.
Parties across the spectrum in France have an incentive to push back against the RN, with the hope that they will be able to avoid the party gaining a majority, and forcing them to go into a coalition. Theoretically this will moderate the policies of an RN government, but it is clear that on issues like immigration, a right-ward shift is coming.
The impact on the EU is unclear — and I’m not going to speculate given the uncertain nature of what type of government will come out of this election, but it will be important to watch as Europe is also dealing with a surge in the number of far-right members of the European Parliament.
More to come after Sunday…
